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Initially, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Vladimir Putin continued blocking ceasefire discussions, he ultimately enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Invasion

This proposal would essentially reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality undermine that essential sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, implying giving Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening autocracy denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in position the already divided oblasts of these areas, the proposal would require Ukraine to abandon the entire this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unable to occupy in more than a decade of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that represent a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, giving Putin a open path to the capital if he later decide to renew the war.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would enable renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, the initiative imposes no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal asserts: "Every radical doctrine and activities must be opposed and banned." As if to highlight this point, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in Russia.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the plan makes Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has breached comparable agreements in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "strong joint military response" should Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "major, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. Yet in contrast to a strong national defense – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not