Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.