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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.